Waving sticks

There seems no end to the multiplication of the points of friction between Pakistan and the US. Pakistan’s apparent determination to pursue an independent energy development and acquisition policy is the latest hot spot, specifically the gas pipeline linking Pakistan and Iran. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has said in reply to a question in the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations that the US would feel obliged to impose sanctions on us if the project went ahead. She further commented that this would be damaging to Pakistan as its economy was already shaky and that it was ‘somewhat inexplicable’ that Pakistan would be trying to negotiate a pipeline while the US was ratcheting up pressure on Iran. It is inexplicable that Pakistan should be so independent-minded, that it should make its own decisions as to where it gets energy from and who it partners to do that? Pakistan, through Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, has provided an adequate response by saying the Pak-Iran gas pipeline will go ahead without considering any extraneous pressure.

The USA is particularly sensitive about Pakistan’s relations with Iran at this time as the grumbling crisis over the development of Iranian nuclear resources looks like it might come to a head in the months ahead. Despite the acknowledged reality that Iran is still far from producing a viable nuclear weapon (which would anyway have to be tested before it was used), the US and Israel do not want to take a chance on Iran advancing its capability in this respect. A pre-emptive strike by either is a possibility, however distant. Nuclear ambitions aside, Iran is as concerned with its neighbourly relations as any other state, and we are neighbours. Iran is relatively wealthy in terms of energy and is able to offer us a competitive deal for gas supplies — at the same time as waving the not inconsiderable carrot of 80,000 barrels of oil a day on a three-month deferred payment plan. This might ease the effect of western sanctions for the Iranians but is unlikely to bring a smile to the face of Secretary Clinton. Our response is to barter — wheat for oil, fertilisers and iron-ore. Another player in the energy game with which Pakistan has close links is China, and China is playing the long game in that it already purchases oil and gas from Iran and could do so at significantly reduced rates if the western sanctions began to really bite — the Chinese therefore have an interest in a spur development of the gas pipeline north into Xinxiang province, adding to the complexity of the energy acquisition conundrum. The US has been promising to support our crippled energy infrastructure for three years, and says that gas can be delivered cheaper via a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. Given the uncertain outcome of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan this has to be a doubtful option. There is thus nothing ‘inexplicable’ about Pakistan going ahead with the Iran gas pipeline project. Only if the US were not to see things through the glass of its own selfish vested interest.